In fiscal year 2024/25, gold prices surged by 40%. Yet, many well-established gold-focused institutions struggled to translate this into stronger results.
The UK’s Royal Mint, for example, reported significant losses—GBP 36.3 million on turnover of GBP 1.3 billion (USD 50 million on USD 1.8 billion).
Meanwhile, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) is once again increasing membership fees, and several major global coin and bar distributors have published results that fell short of expectations.
At one of the major LBMA gatherings, a founding father and former chairman of the Association posed a question to one of his ex-employees now serving as a senior advisor: “What exactly does the LBMA do for its members?”
The advisor replied, “We manage the Good Delivery List, oversee Responsible Sourcing, compile market data, and establish rules and guidelines for the global bullion market.”
To which the former Chairman responded, “Yes, but how does any of that actually help members make money?”
Many attribute the problem to margin compression. While this is partly true, in theory lower margins on higher values should balance out.
Margins differ across the supply chain—refiners and mints typically operate on thin spreads of 0.25–1.00% but with high turnover; wholesalers and distributors sit in the middle; while retailers often command 4–5% or more.
Take, for example, a mid-sized distributor whose margins have declined from 2.5% to 2%—a 20% drop. With gold prices rising 40%, the higher underlying value should more than offset this.
After all, 2.5% on USD 1 billion yields USD 25 million, whereas 2% on USD 1.4 billion still produces USD 28 million.
The truth is, complacency in long-established institutions is beginning to damage the industry at a time when it should be thriving. How does the Royal Mint—owned by the British taxpayer—manage to turn GBP 1.3 billion in record gold coin sales into a GBP 36.3 million loss?
Answers on a postcard, please—preferably from somewhere warm and exotic.
Then again, given WhatsApp, I haven’t received a postcard all summer. Perhaps the Royal Mint is simply a reflection of the wider malaise facing the UK and its economy.
Thankfully, the past decade has seen the rise of sharper, more agile precious metals firms—led by financially astute, customer-focused managers rather than civil servants, retail clerks, or box-ticking diversity officers.
Auctus Metals, by contrast, is run by industry experts whose sole focus is generating the strongest possible returns for clients.
Of course, part of this comes down to the gold price itself, which has been driven higher by a weakening US Dollar.
Since the start of the year, the USD has dropped 15% against the Euro— before even factoring in the 25% tariff faced by US consumers.
As a result, non-US companies are seeing their dollar-denominated income translate into weaker profits in their local currencies. For now, the US Dollar remains the primary currency for gold trading.
The Formula One of Precious Metals
With the Formula One season now in to it’s final run in, let’s see how it compares with Precious Metals:
The Gold of Maclaren out in front
The Mercedes Silver arrows lead the best of the rest
Ferrari, the most World Championships; but overshadowed for several years now; just like Platinum. Is it time for a comeback?
Red Bull, like Palladium has had two recent World Champions in Vettel and Verstappen; but where is it without Christian Horner?
Since the summer mid-season break, Gold has taken the lead, setting fresh record highs.
Silver has followed closely, reaching levels not seen in 14 years.
Platinum has climbed the rankings but is still struggling to gain real momentum.
Palladium, once the Red Bull of the market, has lost the dominance it enjoyed for several years—though under the right conditions, it can still deliver surprises.
But what about the next season?
Regulatory changes are set to play a major role. Gold still has the strongest drivers inflation and central bank buying. Yet while these forces will remain in play next year, their impact may start to fade as the rest of the field closes the gap.
Mercedes’ Silver Arrows have struggled in recent seasons, and silver itself has faced a similar fate—suffering from severe “porpoising” under heavy braking.
Now, however, Silver has a new chassis and two eager young drivers in technology and value. With prices hovering near all-time highs, a breakout looks imminent. Once USD 44 is cleared, it could act as a new engine propelling the metal higher. While some of the more extravagant forecasts may be unrealistic, a mid-term gain of 100%+ remains very much on the cards, with USD 92–100 still a credible target.
Platinum, once the undisputed champion and trading at a substantial premium to its peers, finds itself in a different position. Like Lewis Hamilton, the question is whether its greatest days are behind it—or if another title run still lies ahead.
The outlook for next year looks brighter, with stronger legislation supporting hydrogen production, renewed demand for diesel engines, continued stock drawdowns, and falling mine supply.
Can it reclaim the crown from gold? Not yet.
But will it close the gap? Absolutely—and likely faster than many expect.
Palladium, much like Red Bull, dominated in the early 2020s but has been outpaced by rivals in recent years.
Is its race over? Hardly.
It still has the capacity to deliver surprises. After all, Christian Horner walked away with a GBP 52 million payout.
And while there’s plenty of talk about banning internal combustion engines in the near future, given today’s global challenges, is such a move really realistic within the next four years?
