I have been writing these reports since August 2024. Since then we have seen some major moves. Congratulations to those that have read these reports and acted accordingly; commiserations to those that have missed out – so far.
When I started writing reports and making presentations, I was warned: Never make a price prediction; if you do, never give a time scale.
If you make both these mistakes, whatever you do, don’t give your name. Good advice — totally ignored. Unlike the big investment banks that adjust their forecasts down after a dip or up after a spike, I prefer to stubbornly stick to my guns.
No one likes a smart arse, but let’s recap what has happened since August 2024.
Silver Report:
August 2024
“Change of sentiment. The silver traders have turned from bearish to
bullish.”
“More importantly, ‘The trend is your friend’—stick with the market
momentum. It’s essential to see the bigger picture.”
“The price is the price. Take it or leave it. Now is the time to take it.”
September 2024
“Will silver be able to continue higher after $32.90? A tough question, but
given the current market dynamics, probably.”
“Expect consolidation in December, ready for another assault higher in
January/February as global interest rates continue to fall.”
October 2024
“Silver has crashed through the key resistance at $32.90. If it can now hold above $33.60, we are looking for a serious and vigorous run to $40. There is no real resistance between $34 and $40. After this we are literally in unchartered territory – there is nothing in the charts above $42.”
“The big battalions have turned to silver. Platinum will be next in their
sights.”
June 2025
“(Silver)…but despite some dips, the trend is still upwards and between here and USD 42 we are in no-mans land. Given that these cycles are pretty much spot on 105 months and we’re 33 months into this cycle, we have another six years to run. The question is how far? It depends how fast we run! If we maintain the rate so far, we should see USD 92”.
“The consensus among traders attending London Platinum Week in May, was that the platinum price should be in the range of USD 2,000 – 2,200; but that’s just for this year.”
“The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) is due to commence trading physical platinum any day now. While it is nominally a futures exchange for hedging price risk for Chinese manufacturers, we know from other Chinese futures exchanges that it will be used mostly by investors and speculators (despite regulations and certain laws against such actions). The fact that the contracts can be physically settled in ingots, suggest that they expect investor buying rather than industrial buying.”
July 2025
“As I wrote in October, “Silver is breaking out all over!” and repeated again in November and last month, USD 42 is still an obvious target for this year and USD 92 (or even the holy grail of USD100) is still modest mid-term, 5 year expectation.”
“Palladium: The silent assassin”
“Buy the dips!”
“There is now a total dislocation between the US futures markets and the OTC markets.”
September 2025
“Gold has the two best drivers: inflation and central bank buying”
“Silver is very near to it’s all time high and will surely break out soon. Once USD44 is breached, we will have a new engine to drive the price. While we may not see some of the fanciful levels being speculated on, we should see a 100%+ gain in the mid-term. USD92-100 is still a realistic target for
now.”
“(Platinum) Will it regain the championship from gold? Not in the near term. Will it close the gap? Certainly, but how quickly? I suspect quicker than many believe.”
“(Platinum) So far this year investment demand in China has grown 300%. Added to this, there has been a switch in China from expensive gold jewellery to “cheaper” platinum jewellery. As I stated last month, opening trading in platinum in China for manufacturers to hedge, would inevitably lead to substantial investment demand as we have seen in other metals.”
Enough Of The Showing Off
As a trader, you are only as good as your last trade. What happens now?
Well, more of the same actually. So far this year, gold has gained a mere 59%, palladium a decent 71%, silver a superb 80% and platinum an amazing 83%. Yes that’s right! gold has “only” managed 59% despite all the hype in the media.
So What Can We Expect For The Rest Of The Year?
We are still only 80% through the year, so another 20% more of what we’ve seen before is not unreasonable, if not downright conservative.
Platinum is on course for 100% gain year-on-year and silver may well come lose. The current silver squeeze still has a month or so still to go. The
squeeze in platinum is becoming chronic, but as yet, has not become as acute as silver. Given the steeper increase in demand and steeper fall in supply, the platinum squeeze can only become more acute.
Historically banks have been short paper and long physical, but with the moves in the EFP caused by Trump’s tariffs many reversed that strategy. Now they are short physical silver, can they back their unallocated positions?
It is the unallocated that the banks trade and credit to their customers’ accounts. Holders of unallocated are unsecured creditors. Governments cannot bail out the silver market, but they may have to bail out a bank if a bank is in default to unsecured creditors.
Just because silver and platinum are the star performers, don’t write off gold and palladium.
Palladium has different market dynamics to the others, but has still managed a stealthy 71% gain year to date (21% just this month!) and has every reason to maintain this momentum.
Meanwhile gold continues to almost daily set all time historic highs in real terms, both in outright price and in value of purchasing power, whether you measure that in real estate or Mars bars.
And 2026?
The simple answer is more of the same!
While making presentations in Australia last December, I told the attendees that we were about to see World War III in H1 2025; an economic world war. Thanks mostly to Mr Trump and his tariffs, economic WW3 is exactly what we’ve got.
Fifty years of globalisation and a dependable US Dollar thrown in to reverse. Despite the hypocritical sniping at Trump from the European Union, we have now seen and will continue to see higher trade barriers by the EU.
The two main requirements for a European (and most other G20 countries) politicians is hypocrisy and a lack of empathy. They push diversity, inclusivity and ecology, not because they believe in these values or have empathy with the people involved.
It is purely to get the votes they require to keep their snouts in the trough.
Gold
Meanwhile, tariffs have overshadowed what has been going on with BRICS. BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates) includes four of the biggest gold producers, accounting for 25% of all gold production; seven of the top ten gold consumers and hold 20% of all gold reserves and stocks.
These countries aren’t deliberately attacking the US Dollar; de-dollarization is just a symptom of the effect of BRICS.
Gold has overtaken the Euro and US Treasury debt to become the number two central bank reserve after the US Dollar.
So much so, the US is spending $20 billion on bailing out Argentina to keep them out of the orbit of BRICS, while closing US government agencies due to budget issues.
So, if we assume more of the same for gold, what does another 57% mean?
2025 57% meant $1,500+. For 2026 that would mean another $2,400, taking gold to $6,600.
In 2026, are we going to see an end to the trade wars and interest rate cuts despite ingrained inflation, let alone escalating war in the Ukraine? I
doubt it.
Add to this the central banks continued dash from dollars to gold, another 57% seems conservative.
So far in 2025, central banks have purchased over 900 tonnes of gold and are on course for 1,000 by the end of the year. This may well accelerate in 2026 as more countries move away from the dollar.
As one veteran gold trader said recently. “Just buy gold. Then have a rest and then buy some more”.
Silver
Today’s hot topic, but perhaps not for all of next year.
This doesn’t mean I expect a collapse, just a slowdown. While the year may start quietly, with perhaps a bit of retracement, March should see things kick off again for a month or two.
My mid-term expectation is still USD 92 with a brief over-run towards USD 100 before settling down. Simple strategy; buy now, buy dips, sell at USD 98 and buy back again at USD 92.
Platinum
Platinum is still on course for the initial target of $2,000-$2,200, which would mean a gain of 120% year-on-year, but there is nothing on the horizon to change the market dynamic.
Demand is still creeping up, while supply continues to decline. Don’t rule out another 100%+ year. Unlike gold and silver, the current platinum futures contracts don’t expire until January — that’s when things should start to get interesting.
However, keep in mind that platinum is quicker and easier to move than silver.
Palladium
Palladium is a bit of an outlier.
The futures contracts are fairly illiquid, and the London and Zurich OTC markets are hardly any better. Spreads are rarely below USD10/oz, often USD20-25 outside London afternoon/New York morning.
What this means is that there will be long periods of inactivity interspersed with violent spikes as the market scrambles for liquidity. It may well trail behind platinum, but could still see substantial gains.
Note For Your Diary
The big event with the exception of Platinum will be the December futures contract expiry. The December options will be declared on 24th November.
There are huge volumes of gold options and high volatility in the silver options. It will be a busy Monday. That will be followed by the first notice of delivery (or not) on 28th November for 1st December.
Note these dates well.
How much longer will gold and energy be denominated in USD?
Outside G10 countries, gold is now predominantly traded in yuan, and oil and gas in any currency except the dollar, as Russia pushes its energy exports to other BRICS. Gold-for-oil is not a new concept.
